Lessons of the Newbie 1: Timing the market

Just like most of you, Bitcoin first caught my attention when it’s price sky-rocketed 20x in 2017. Even though I was telling others to avoid the bubble, I was silently kicking myself inside, regretting not buying earlier.

Truthfully, I was hoping it would burst sooner rather than later, so that I could “jump on the bandwagon” myself. When prices collapsed in 2018, I waited until I thought most of the free-fall was over before signing up to learn how to trade cryptocurrencies.

Getting in…

I remember attending an “Intro to Cryptos” talk and understanding, perhaps for the first time, the true significance of cryptocurrencies. I was fascinated by its value proposition, but also enamoured with the upside potential. When I realised the next run of CryptoKnight was scheduled for January, I couldn’t help feeling disappointed and anxious. It was November 2018, and I was certain that the market was nearing its trough.

December 2018 rolled around and my sensing proved prescient: Bitcoin hit a low of $3,300 to the dollar mid-month before recovering sharply to $4,000 towards the end of the year going into 2019. Was this the start of the next bull run? Why didn’t they move the course start date earlier? Now I’m missing out on this one too!

And….the price is right!

Prices began falling again towards mid-January and I felt glad that there was another opportunity to buy into the dip. With the understanding I now had, such as the prevailing opinion that the market had not bottomed out (estimated to be ~$2,000), I started planning my first foray into crypto.

Although I was no technical analyst, I found myself staring at charts to determine the price for my first order. I was eager to buy cheap, so I took the current price and put in a ~$100 discount. After 1-2 days, my orders were completed. Good call! I patted myself on the back for my (non-existent) crystal ball-gazing skills.

…maybe not

When my next payday came along, I looked at the charts again. Hmm, seems like prices would go down further. It was the Lunar New Year and prices had weakened to $3,400, tantalizingly close to the 52-week low. Let’s hold off the transfer a little bit longer and wait for prices to fall a bit more first…*

…and prices shot back up to $4,000 over the course of 2 short weeks.

Sure, I made a small sum, but it would have been more if I wasn’t so greedy. December 2018 all over again.

3 things I learnt

Don’t miss the forest for the trees. Almost all cryptos are down from their all time high this winter. If you believe in crypto’s long term potential , any price now is a good price compared to 2017’s peak. Don’t miss out on the next bull run just because you were waiting for the bottom.
Consistency trumps timing. If I was disciplined and kept buying consistently, I would have caught the short-term bottom in February 2019. Even without intentionally timing the market.
No one can predict the future. Like it or not, all of us are price takers in the market. Even the best technical analysts can’t predict where prices would go the next moment. Just because you had a few lucky guesses, don’t delude yourself that you have precognitive powers.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to buy some BTC before I miss out on the next bull run.

*If I had actually done my homework instead of imagining I had price forecasting powers, I would have realised that BTC fell and then recovered again rapidly during 2018’s Lunar New Year as well.

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